The Arizona Coyotes will have to face the Edmonton Oilers despite their recent 2-1 loss to the Winnipeg Jets.
Edmonton is a -500 home favorite. which is the lowest it has been all season by 75 points. If this game ends up being a rout, the home team’s middle-six players may be worth more than usual because they will be playing more ice time.
Check out my NHL picks and predictions for tonight’s Coyotes vs. Oilers game.
Coyotes vs Oilers picks and predictions
The Arizona Coyotes are coming into tonight with a 6-2 straight-up record over their last eight games despite being outshot by an average of more than 10 per game. As a team, they are allowing their opponent to take 57 shots per game while taking only 38.
Even though the Yotes are heavy underdogs tonight, a player like Ryan Nugent-Hopkins may be worth a look if the game ends up lopsided due to the influence of the game script.
RNH is currently playing on the second line, so the veteran and PP1 forward could see some additional ice time if Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl were to miss some shifts later in the game.
Tonight against the Coyotes, he has a better chance than tossing a coin that he will take three or more shots than he does in a typical game (20 minutes). When they last met in December, he recorded two goals and four shots in just 18 minutes of action.
In the game against San Jose, where he recorded a season-high seven shots, two of them came while he was on the power play with the first power play unit. The forward will likely get five or more minutes of extra ice time, as Arizona has the third-most penalties in the NHL.
Six of the Yotes’ last 10 games saw them allow 40 shots, and Betano has Edmonton slated for 37.5. RNH shoots 2.45 times per game on average, good for 7.5% of the team’s total. With that rate, the forward would finish with 3.0 shots if the Oilers managed to get 40 shots.
Consider the favorable shooting matchup and the fact that the stars may get extra playing time after taking a late breather, and tonight could end up being another night of high shooting volume like Monday.
Even at +105, his price implies only 2.38 shots on goal, while I’m projecting 2.805.
Coyotes vs Oilers moneyline analysis
The Coyotes couldn’t have picked a more challenging stretch of games. Teams rarely play in Winnipeg one night and Edmonton the next due to the long travel time and time difference between the two cities. When you factor in that Edmonton has won eight of its last 10 games and is scoring 4.69 goals per game over the past 30 days, you can see why taking -500 on the moneyline tonight might be a good idea.
Arizona is 2-0 when favored by +375 or more this season, including a +420 victory in Toronto. In games where the spread is +300 or longer, it is 3-8 SU, with victories over Toronto, Carolina, and Boston. Yotes are 0-8 SU in their last eight games at +275 or longer, so those victories were all before the holidays.
Only 13 games this year, including both Arizona games, have had underdogs with odds of +375 or higher. The dog has a 4-9 SU (+6.85 units) record in those 13 contests. Blindly betting on these large dogs has paid off in the past, and the price of +375 is ideal.
Despite Edmonton’s recent success and Stuart Skinner’s contributions, this Arizona team is currently displaying its best hockey of the season.
Despite their improvements, the Yotes are last in the league in Corsi percentage, 31st in xGoal percentage, and 29th in high-danger chance percentage over the past month. They’re successful, but their numbers could be more impressive.
The underlying metrics still show an outmatched team, so the +375 is fair, but the performance of likely starter Ivan Prosvetov could sway your bet tonight. The rookie goalie has a perfect record and a.952 SV% after three starts this season, albeit against the more formidable competition of Chicago, Vancouver, and Nashville.
This evening, the odds are stacked against the Coyotes, but with a young, red-hot goaltender, it might be worth it to take a shot at +375.
Coyotes vs Oilers Over/Under Analysis
The opening line for this total was 7.0, but the betting has since shifted ten points in favor of the Under. Oilers games have been heavily bet on the Over this season, with the total going 20-8-2 in their last 30 games. This season, they have a 43-22-6 Over/Under record, making Over bettors nearly 18 units. Then why the relocation down under?
To begin, tonight’s low expected scoring totals for Arizona could be more optimistic. It played a 2-1 game in Winnipeg last night, and the above-mentioned underlying metrics suggest that it will soon experience a regression in its scoring.
Despite scoring 3.27 goals per game on average (15th), the Coyotes are in the Bottom 10 in creating scoring chances this month and are in the Bottom 5 in high-danger chances.
It would also be nice if the goaltending was slightly better than expected tonight. The best offense has helped Skinner in the league, but he has also kept the opposition to two or fewer goals in seven of his last 12 games.
Not great, but Skinner has a shot tonight against a tired Arizona defense that is performing above expectations. Under 2.5 is a -160 favorite for the Arizona Diamondbacks, which equals about 2.28 goals.
A rookie goaltender who was called up earlier this month has been on fire, and the Oilers will have to figure out how to stop him. If you’re into ice hockey betting, keep an eye on Prosvetov who has a perfect 3-0 record and has allowed zero goals on 105 shots. While Arizona has trouble limiting shots on goal, the rookie has not had any problems, going 3-0-1 with the Under in those games.
I’m not optimistic about a two-goal game, and Prosvetov has a slim chance to be the hero tonight. Although I’m afraid I have to disagree with the market’s shift to the Under, I will play along.
